# Strengthening El Nino to Reshape Global Solar Irradiance for H2 2026
*Author: Eternalgy Market Intelligence Team | Category: news | Published: Fri Jul 10 2026 12:50:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)*

## English

* **Solcast**, a DNV company, reports that a developing **El Nino weather pattern** is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, significantly reshaping global solar irradiance
* In its weekly update for **PV Magazine**, Solcast forecasts that El Nino will **redistribute solar resources** across key solar markets worldwide
* Analysis of past strong El Nino events in **2009, 2015, and 2023** shows how sharply solar irradiance patterns can shift, affecting solar PV generation in different regions
* In the first half of 2026, solar irradiance was **broadly above average** across many regions, but El Nino conditions are expected to create more variability in H2 2026
* **East Asia** experienced elevated irradiance in May 2026, with Tokyo recording irradiance about **15% above its 2007-2025 average**
* For **Southeast Asian solar markets**, El Nino typically brings drier and sunnier conditions, potentially boosting solar PV output but also increasing heat-related panel efficiency losses
* Solar project developers and grid operators in Malaysia and ASEAN should **monitor irradiance forecasts closely** to optimize generation planning and grid integration strategies

## 中文

* **Solcast**（DNV旗下公司）报告称，正在发展的**厄尔尼诺气候模式**预计将在2026年下半年显著增强，重塑全球太阳辐照度
* 在为**《光伏杂志》**提供的每周更新中，Solcast预测厄尔尼诺将在全球主要太阳能市场之间**重新分配太阳能资源**
* 对**2009年、2015年和2023年**过去三次强厄尔尼诺事件的分析显示，太阳辐照度模式可能发生剧烈变化，影响不同地区的太阳能光伏发电
* 2026年上半年，许多地区的太阳辐照度**普遍高于平均水平**，但厄尔尼诺条件预计将在2026年下半年带来更多变异性
* **东亚**在2026年5月经历了偏高的辐照度，东京记录的辐照度比其2007-2025年平均值**高出约15%**
* 对于**东南亚太阳能市场**，厄尔尼诺通常带来更干燥和晴朗的条件，可能提升太阳能光伏发电量，但也会增加与高温相关的组件效率损失
* 马来西亚和东盟的太阳能项目开发商和电网运营商应**密切关注辐照度预测**，以优化发电规划和电网整合策略