English

  • Project Delays Expected: UOBKayHian anticipates that major initiatives like CRESS and LSS6 may face power purchase agreement (PPA) delays due to surging project costs.
  • Cost Impact: Every $0.01/W increase in solar module prices adds approximately MYR 4 million ($1 million) to the cost of a 100MW project.
  • China's VAT Export Rebate Changes: China has eliminated the 9% VAT export rebate for PV products and reduced battery rebates from 9% to 6%, with full abolition for batteries set for January 2027.
  • Market Resilience: LSS5 and LSS5+ projects remain relatively stable as current tender pricing already accounts for higher module costs ($0.12–$0.13/W).
  • EPCC Outlook: Despite price volatility, EPCC firms are mitigating risks through strategic inventory management and cost pass-through agreements.
  • LSS6 Tender: The Energy Commission is expected to initiate the LSS6 tender in Q1 2026, targeting an allocation of 2GW with mandatory BESS requirements.
  • Market Opportunity: Total EPCC contract opportunities in Malaysia are projected to reach MYR 13 billion to MYR 23 billion over the next five years.

中文

  • 项目延期预期： 大华继显（UOBKayHian）指出，受成本上升影响，马来西亚的 CRESS 和 LSS6 等大型太阳能项目在签署购电协议（PPA）时可能面临延期。
  • 成本影响： 太阳能组件价格每上涨 $0.01/W，100MW 项目的成本将增加约 400 万令吉（100 万美元）。
  • 中国出口退税调整： 中国已取消光伏产品的 9% 增值税出口退税，并将电池产品的退税率从 9% 下调至 6%，且计划在 2027 年 1 月全面取消电池退税。
  • 市场韧性： LSS5 和 LSS5+ 项目预计受影响较小，因其投标定价已预留了较高的组件成本空间（$0.12–$0.13/W）。
  • EPCC 前景： 尽管价格波动，但工程、采购、施工及调试（EPCC）承包商正通过战略性库存管理和成本转嫁协议来缓解风险。
  • LSS6 招标： 预计马来西亚能源委员会将在 2026 年第一季度启动 LSS6 招标，预计容量为 2GW，并强制要求配备电池储能系统（BESS）。
  • 市场机遇： 未来五年，马来西亚的 EPCC 合同总额预计将达到 130 亿至 230 亿令吉。