English

  • Rapid Demand Growth: ASEAN’s energy demand is projected to rise 2.6 times from 2022 levels by 2050, with 82% of supply currently reliant on fossil fuels.
  • Growing Import Dependency: The region is expected to become a net natural gas importer by 2027; by 2045, import dependency could reach 93%, with annual costs exceeding USD 200 billion.
  • Vulnerability to Volatility: The 2022 energy crisis showed the danger of reliance on external supplies, as global price spikes forced a 5.6% decline in natural gas consumption across the region.
  • Renewable Potential: ASEAN possesses vast, untapped renewable resources, including Vietnam’s offshore wind, Lao PDR’s hydropower, and Indonesia’s geothermal capacity.
  • The Case for Integration: The ASEAN Power Grid (APG) is critical for regional resilience, enabling cross-border electricity trade to balance supply, demand, and renewable energy fluctuations.

中文

  • 能源需求激增： 预计到 2050 年，东盟的能源需求将比 2022 年增长 2.6 倍，且目前 82% 的供应仍依赖化石燃料。
  • 进口依赖加剧： 该地区预计将于 2027 年成为天然气净进口国；到 2045 年，进口依赖度可能高达 93%，年度进口账单将超过 2000 亿美元。
  • 抵御市场波动： 2022 年的能源危机凸显了外部供应依赖的风险，全球价格飙升导致东盟地区天然气消费量下降了 5.6%。
  • 可再生能源潜力： 东盟拥有丰富的可再生能源，包括越南的海上风能、老挝的水电以及印尼的地热资源。
  • 区域一体化方案： “东盟电网”（APG）对于增强区域韧性至关重要，通过跨境电力贸易平衡供需，并缓解可再生能源波动带来的挑战。