English

  • Solcast, a DNV company, reports that a developing El Nino weather pattern is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, significantly reshaping global solar irradiance
  • In its weekly update for PV Magazine, Solcast forecasts that El Nino will redistribute solar resources across key solar markets worldwide
  • Analysis of past strong El Nino events in 2009, 2015, and 2023 shows how sharply solar irradiance patterns can shift, affecting solar PV generation in different regions
  • In the first half of 2026, solar irradiance was broadly above average across many regions, but El Nino conditions are expected to create more variability in H2 2026
  • East Asia experienced elevated irradiance in May 2026, with Tokyo recording irradiance about 15% above its 2007-2025 average
  • For Southeast Asian solar markets, El Nino typically brings drier and sunnier conditions, potentially boosting solar PV output but also increasing heat-related panel efficiency losses
  • Solar project developers and grid operators in Malaysia and ASEAN should monitor irradiance forecasts closely to optimize generation planning and grid integration strategies

中文

  • Solcast（DNV旗下公司）报告称，正在发展的厄尔尼诺气候模式预计将在2026年下半年显著增强，重塑全球太阳辐照度
  • 在为**《光伏杂志》提供的每周更新中，Solcast预测厄尔尼诺将在全球主要太阳能市场之间重新分配太阳能资源**
  • 对2009年、2015年和2023年过去三次强厄尔尼诺事件的分析显示，太阳辐照度模式可能发生剧烈变化，影响不同地区的太阳能光伏发电
  • 2026年上半年，许多地区的太阳辐照度普遍高于平均水平，但厄尔尼诺条件预计将在2026年下半年带来更多变异性
  • 东亚在2026年5月经历了偏高的辐照度，东京记录的辐照度比其2007-2025年平均值高出约15%
  • 对于东南亚太阳能市场，厄尔尼诺通常带来更干燥和晴朗的条件，可能提升太阳能光伏发电量，但也会增加与高温相关的组件效率损失
  • 马来西亚和东盟的太阳能项目开发商和电网运营商应密切关注辐照度预测，以优化发电规划和电网整合策略